Assisted living most common type of senior living unit being planned
MELBOURNE: Assisted living is the dominant senior living community type being planned, according to a report released Wednesday by the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care, the first day of the organization’s Fall Conference.
Sixty percent of units either being modified at existing properties or as part of new property development were assisted living units as of the second quarter, according to the 11-page report, “Beyond Construction: The Senior Housing Planning Pipeline,” which uses data from NIC MAP. Most (95%) of those assisted living units were being planned as part of new property development.
The planning pipeline includes projects that have not yet broken ground but are in pre-planning, planning, bidding or final planning.
“A lot of groups are starting to rev up their planning,” NIC Head of Research and Analytics Lisa McCracken said Wednesday during a press conference at the conference.
According to NIC MAP estimates, she said, the industry needs approximately 576,000 additional units by 2030 to meet demand, but construction starts account for only 10,000 units a year. “And we actually may end up slightly below that here this year,” McCracken said.
“We know that on average, a community takes about 29 months to plan and build. So the units that need to open in 2029 really need to start breaking ground now,” she added. Therefore, “the shortage is pretty much already locked in for the next few years,” McCracken said.
NIC thought it important to look at not only construction starts and inventory growth but also the planning pipeline.
The analysis shared in the report also found that 16% of overall units in the planning pipeline (14,446) were independent living, once again with most of them (93%) coming from new property development rather than modified units at existing properties.
The remaining 24% (21,059) of units were in continuing care retirement / life plan communities, with 98% of them coming from new property development.
Overall, as of the second quarter, 88,283 units were in the planning pipeline across 214 NIC MAP markets. The pipeline remains largely upstream, according to the report, with 94.5% of units overall in the pre-planning or planning stage and just 5.5% reaching the bidding or final planning stage.
By market, 71% of planned units (62,673) were located in the 31 primary markets followed by NIC MAP, and 22% (19,761) were in 68 secondary markets. Three percent each were in 41 additional markets or in 74 expansion markets.
The Southeast (23%), Mid-Atlantic (19%), Pacific (18%) and Northeast (17%) were the most popular regions for planned units or units under construction.